USMNT and Jamaica in the Concacaf Nations League quarterfinals
The US men's national team carry a 1-0 aggregate lead into the second leg of the Concacaf Nations League quarterfinal against Jamaica, looking to close the tie at St. Louis CITY’s Energizer Park. Here’s how to watch or stream on Monday.
With the international break at hand, we figured we’d take a look at each remaining playoff team and gauge their hopes of winning an MLS Cup. We’ll go from lowest seed to highest seed, starting with the East. Yesterday, Minnesota United. Today, Seattle.
The path behind
In what’s largely been viewed as a “down year” for the Sounders due to a lackluster DP signing, injuries and an aging roster: seventh in MLS in points, seventh in MLS in expected points, seventh in expected goal differential, seventh in American Soccer Analysis’ goals added differential and fifth in my totally legitimate and completely unquestionable Power Ratings. Defensively, they finished first in goals allowed and first in expected goals against.
By pretty much every metric, they’ve been the seventh-best team in MLS and the best defensive team in MLS. Even when the vibes aren’t great, the Sounders stay among the best in the league.
That’s even with DP Pedro de la Vega being maybe the most underwhelming DP signing in the league this season. He got injured early on in the year, struggled to get back on the field and hasn’t looked anything close to a team-changing signing when he’s been available.
Still, the Sounders back line has been outstanding, Albert Rusnák has been a Best XI-caliber midfielder and Jordan Morris has been effective enough as a striker. Seattle always find a way.
That held true in Round One. They were able to win back-to-back penalty shootouts against Houston. Yes, it took them 177 minutes to score in that series, but they still did enough against another great defensive side.
The path ahead
Seattle always finds a way… except against LAFC. Nearly every match against them has been a total nightmare for years now. That’s not an exaggeration. The Sounders haven’t beaten LAFC since 2021. It’s been 10 matches. LAFC have eight wins against Seattle in that span. LAFC have knocked out Seattle in the most recent Western Conference Semifinals, the most recent Leagues Cup and the most recent U.S. Open Cup.
So. Yeah. They aren’t exactly favored heading into this weekend.
It likely wouldn’t get too much easier after that. They’ll either face off against a Galaxy side with one of the best attacks we’ve seen in MLS or a Minnesota United side that’s been red-hot since Leagues Cup. But compared to LAFC, those two probably look like U-14 sides.
Can they do it?
Well… recent history says no.
Defense travels though. LAFC are going to have a tough time breaking Seattle down. A game-state-changing goal from a set piece or early break would work wonders. And if they can pull off a win of any kind against LAFC, it’s going to be tough to count them out the rest of the way. This feels like their own personal MLS Cup. If they can get over the hill, they may have too much momentum to stop.
Why won’t they do it?
LAFC. And if it’s somehow not LAFC, it will be the fact they haven’t found consistent answers in attack all year. Throughout the season, they’ve been stuck in the middle of the pack when it comes to expected goals created. If they get down to one of the LAs or Minnesota, it’s fair to wonder how they’re going to get back in the match.
What will decide whether or not they do it?
- Are they going to get ahead of LAFC? Or at least keep them in check enough to get this to penalties?
- Who’s going to step up in attack? We ask that question of a lot of teams, but with Seattle it feels even more important. We know they’re going to play well defensively. But without clear match-winners on the field, we don’t know where goals are going to come from.
- Seriously, it’s just not clear how they’re going to beat LAFC. Get past them and we’ll talk. Until then…
Good luck out there. Better days are on the way.
