Leagues Cup: Which semifinalist is most likely to lift the trophy?

As we sprint head-first into the Leagues Cup semifinals, four MLS teams are licking their lips. They’re all within touching distance of the trophy, the prize money and the automatic Concacaf Champions Cup spots. But which of the four remaining clubs has the best chance of winning this whole thing?

Well today, I’m opening myself up to your ridicule by ranking the four semifinalists in order of who I think will lift the trophy.

On to the rankings!

Why they could win: Because their ceiling is higher than any other team still standing

When the Columbus Crew dropped five goals on LAFC in LAFC’s building last month, plenty of jaws dropped around the league. We’ve known that the Crew are good for more than a year now – they won MLS Cup last year for crying out loud. But did we know they could be “four goals better than LAFC” good? Well, we do now.

At their best, Columbus’ ceiling is somewhere in the outer atmosphere.

Of course, that doesn’t mean they truly are four goals better than LAFC. The gap between even the best and worst teams in Leagues Cup is far narrower than that. Still, Wilfried Nancy’s tactical planning certainly seems to trump any of his peers. And crucially, the Crew have top-end talent that can turn Nancy’s possession-heavy game model into consistent and legitimate chances in the final third. It’s a perfect blend of elite planning and elite execution.

Why they won’t: Because they’re in a valley

Just because Columbus have made their way to the semis doesn’t mean they’re playing fantastic soccer. Sure, they’re downright terrifying at their best. But right now, after coughing up the ball in horrible spots that directly led to goals against both Inter Miami in the Round of 16 and New York City FC in the quarterfinal, they’re not at their best.

It says something about the Crew that they can limp their way through a few games and still progress to the final four. Invincible, however, this team is not.

Leagues Cup standout: Diego Rossi

This is who Columbus signed Diego Rossi to be when they added him in place of Lucas Zelarayán last summer. The 26-year-old has been dynamic, aggressive and flexible in possession en route to his four goals across the Crew’s three Leagues Cup knockout games. With movement like this inside the 18, good luck slowing down Rossi:

Why they could win: Uh, have you looked at this squad?

"There's no substitute for quality players. And we have quality players," manager Steve Cherundolo said after his team’s 3-0 win at the Sounders in the Leagues Cup quarterfinals. "I mean, Denis Bouanga, for one, who is physically talented, technically talented, who also just loves scoring goals and knows where to be."

That Cherundolo added "for one" after mentioning Bouanga’s name is significant: he’s the most dangerous player in the squad, but he’s far from the only match-winner especially now that Olivier Giroud is in town. And when Giroud hops into the starting lineup for the first time? Watch out, world. On pure talent, LAFC can more than hang with any of the other three semifinalists.

Why they won’t: The Crew are their bogey team

Between last year’s MLS Cup and that 5-1 loss earlier this season, LAFC have struggled to contain the Crew’s attacking unit. In both games – the final back in December and the regular-season clash in July – LAFC lost the midfield battle. They failed to neutralize Columbus’ numerical advantage in central spaces, all while missing out on opportunities to lean into their numerical advantages on the wings.

Of course, Cherundolo would have even more data to make informed tactical decisions should these two teams meet in the Leagues Cup final. But a third bite of the apple might just end up tasting a lot like the first two.

Leagues Cup standout: Denis Bouanga

Could it be anyone else? The best pure winger in MLS, Bouanga is tied for the lead in goals in this year’s Leagues Cup with five. He’s excellent in every phase, but he continues to be borderline unstoppable in transition:

Why they could win: Because Leagues Cup now belongs to the Colorado Rapids

Take a bow, Colorado. After four consecutive wins over LIGA MX foes, a streak that culminated in their wild penalty shootout victory over Club América in the quarters on Saturday, the Rapids have made their way to the semifinals. It’s a downright incredible run that feels almost too perfect to end a game short of the final itself.

It’s not just vibes and penalty shootout heroics that give the Rapids a real chance against LAFC on Wednesday. Rather, it’s the fact that Chris Armas’ team has shown an ability to limit opponents to low-quality shots. Of the 20 shots that Club América took against Colorado, very few were especially dangerous:

What I wrote last week about the Rapids ahead of their meeting with the LIGA MX giants applies in almost the exact same way ahead of their meeting with LAFC: if Colorado can congest space, force turnovers in good spots, and attack on the break, they’ll make life very difficult for their opponents.

Why they won’t: They’ll miss Moïse Bombito too much

With their star defender officially off to Nice in the French top-flight for a league-record fee for an outbound center back, the Rapids will miss Moïse Bombito in the semis (and beyond, should they reach the final). Bombito was an asset less because of his defensive reads and more because of his insane closing speed. Oh, what’s that? Bouanga is streaking behind the backline? No problem, we’ll send Bombito to clean that up.

Colorado managed with their new starting center back pairing of Andreas Maxsø and Lalas Abubakar against a stacked Club América team. That said, surviving another game where you’re at a talent deficit against a high-flying attack won’t be easy.

Leagues Cup standout: Zack Steffen

I’m not quite sure how this all works, but I’m pretty sure I’m legally obligated to give Zack Steffen some love in this section after his penalty shootout heroics on Saturday night. Saving a penalty to keep his team alive before banging the go-ahead strike into the back of the net just minutes later? Yeah, that’s the good stuff.

Why they could win: They’re back to keeping things tight

The Philadelphia Union haven’t conceded more than two goals in a single game during any of their last nine matches. They’ve only conceded more than one goal in a single game once in their five Leagues Cup matches. They kept an incredibly talented Cruz Azul team to a single goal and just six shots inside the box in the group stage.

While their defense has struggled in MLS play for stretches of this season, the Union have been back to their stingy defensive ways in recent games. And while Jim Curtin won’t have a true game-changing attacker available on Wednesday, Philly getting back in touch with their “let’s be horrible to play against” roots bodes well ahead of their final tournament push.

Why they won’t: Too many key pieces are missing

Between José Martínez’s impending exit and how Tai Baribo is suspended for the semis after picking up a pair of yellow cards against Mazatlán in the quarters, the Union are light on difference-makers ahead of their meeting with the Crew.

Curtin’s transition-focused setup out of his go-to 4-4-2 diamond shape helps provide continuity from the starters to the depth pieces in his squad. Still, starters are starters for a reason. There will be a real drop-off down the spine, especially given Baribo’s recent scoring run. He’s snagged five goals in Leagues Cup, which puts him tied for the tournament lead with Bouanga. Philly may just be a piece or two short of giving Columbus a real scare on Wednesday.

Leagues Cup standout: Quinn Sullivan

Baribo is the real answer here, given his recent scoring exploits. But because of his upcoming semifinal suspension, I’m giving Quinn Sullivan some love. The 20-year-old has started four of his team’s five Leagues Cup games, added a goal and an assist off the bench against FC Cincinnati, and appears to be adapting to his new No. 8 role quite well.

If Sullivan’s defensive decision-making is sharp and he adds even a twist of value in the attack, the Union’s chances of success rise in a real way.