Leagues Cup 2025 officially kicks off on Tuesday, and Phase One will bring us about 10 days of games fueled by a solid dose of unpleasantries almost every time out.
The LIGA MX vs. MLS rivalry is very real, as we saw firsthand over the past two years, and the big twist this year is that every single game during Phase One is LIGA MX vs. MLS.
That makes this a good time to look at all 36 teams participating – all 18 LIGA MX sides, and 17 qualifying teams from MLS (plus San Diego in place of Vancouver) – and break them into tiers.
As always, these teams are roughly in order of how good I think they are, but what really matters is the tier designation.
And remember: Everyone's chasing that shiny trophy, one of three 2026 Concacaf Champions Cup spots, some hefty prize money and bragging rights.
These teams are clearly the best bets to win this thing. They don’t need lucky breaks or new signings; they just need their typical amounts of luck to blend in with the level of talent already on their rosters.
Give me this group vs. the field, and I’m taking the winners to come out of this group.
Inter Miami won the inaugural expanded Leagues Cup in 2023, and they won the Supporters’ Shield last year at a record-breaking pace. They are a better team this year, one that’s more battle-tested against high-level competition – via Leagues Cup, via the Concacaf Champions Cup, via the Club World Cup – than just about anybody.
What they are not is perfect; we all know about their defensive struggles, and how Luis Suárez appears to be nearing the end of his illustrious career. But there’s been progressively fewer reasons to doubt this team, and it’s not just because Leo Messi has gone thermonuclear.
Maybe nobody on the continent has more match-winners than Toluca right now. After decades of doing more with less – they never had the resources of the LIGA MX grandes – they’ve opened up the checkbook over the past few years (they’ve reportedly spent nearly $100 million since the start of 2022) and have built one of the best teams in the Americas because of it.
That culminated in their Clausura title this past spring (their first league title in 15 years), which they followed up with another trophy in winning the Campeón de Campeones. And they’re fast out of the gates in the Apertura, with six points from two games before a stumble vs. Tigres this past weekend.
Toluca’s Clausura win broke Club América’s death grip on the LIGA MX trophy, as they’d won it for three straight tournaments. Nobody had done that since Mexico went to the split season 30 years ago. They are record-setters, and they are loaded with match-winners (though they haven’t gone chasing big-name stars – they do a very good job of just focusing on building the best team possible).
Las Águilas are the biggest and most successful team in North America, and they expect to win every competition they enter. That confidence is usually not misplaced.
Cruz Azul feel the same way, but that confidence usually is misplaced, to the point that it’s become a meme among Mexican fandom.
But that meme actually only holds for the liguilla, which they’ve won just once since 1997. They’re a wagon in international tournaments, which we all got a front-row seat for on June 1 when they stuffed a very good Vancouver team into a body bag in the CCC final. The 5-0 triumph for La Máquina was honestly not as close as the scoreline indicated.
They spent reportedly $100 million on new players the past two years, and then another $15 million this summer (including $11 million on the excellent José Paradela, who’s one of my favorite central midfielders in the region). They put a slow start in the league – just two points from the first two games – behind them with a 4-1 mauling of a pretty good Club León side this past weekend.
I’m making an executive decision to put the Seattle Sounders in this group. They’re getting healthy (except for poor Jordan Morris), and I love how they’re playing in attack. Pedro de la Vega’s finally getting minutes at left wing, and he’s rewarded Brian Schmetzer for that with two goals in two games.
Seattle haven’t won anything since the CCL (now CCC) title in 2022. Feels like it could be time to add another trophy.
Each of these teams is either more flawed or less proven than the groups in the tier above. For the most part that means “devastated by injuries,” though in some other cases it means “please make one more ambitious signing.”
For any of them, though, it would be a surprise, but not an outright shock, if they win.
If Kévin Denkey were healthy, I’d have FC Cincinnati in the top group. Yes, I have my issues with their overall form this year – I’ve written extensively about how they’re outperforming their underlying numbers (though less so recently) – but they have match-winners where it matters most, and things really have started looking better with Luca Orellano out at left wingback.
But without Denkey, who’s out a few more weeks with a muscle injury, they’re not really favorites, no matter how impressive their recent league results have been.
Pachuca are the one LIGA MX side that doesn’t spend like the big boys, but I still wanted to put into the first tier. They're maybe the best-run club in either league. Case in point: They develop their academy kids; they find talented cast-offs from the big boys; they get veterans with enough gas in the tank to keep the level high and create an atmosphere of professionalism; they do it all while running a massive profit in the transfer market.
They were pretty decent at the Club World Cup and have used that momentum to come roaring out of the gates in the Clausura with nine points from three matches. But still, I think they’re a cut below the true favorites.
LAFC and Columbus would not be a cut below those favorites if taken in a vacuum, but my doubts about their personnel are too much to overcome. With LAFC, it’s less about the open DP slots than their need at center back after Aaron Long’s season-ending injury (Colombian center back Alexis Pérez is reportedly on the way).
For Columbus, it’s about being short one match-winner – DP striker Wessam Abou Ali has officially signed, but there are doubts he’ll be fully integrated in time for their Leagues Cup title defense.
Regardless, both these teams have earned a lot of equity with me over the past few years, and I don’t think anyone should be shocked if they win the whole thing.
The same would hold true of Tigres UNAL and CF Monterrey, who have been two of the defining clubs in Concacaf over the past 15 years – Tigres for their league dominance, and Monterrey for what they’ve done on the continental stage.
Both are experiencing a low ebb at the moment, though, at least relative to their recent standards. They haven’t quite spent like Cruz Azul or Toluca, and the new signings of the past few years have been good-but-not-great (though I have high hopes for Ángel Correa with Tigres, and Saturday’s huge win at La Bombonera is a significant data point).
There’s still a lot of talent and know-how in these squads. But neither’s really shown the kind of spark they used to have.
I’m not going to count out Club León. They have a match-winner in James Rodríguez, a bunch of runners around him, and a very good defense. Sometimes that’s enough in tournament play.
Good teams for the most part, but ones where you’ve really got to stretch the imagination to see them winning a title next month.
I love the pain Minnesota United cause teams on restarts of all sorts. I do not, however, believe they can win a tournament like this unless they make the same kind of progress with the ball that a team like Nashville have shown.
Still, this team is deep and very good. A deep run wouldn’t shock me, even if a trophy here kind of would.
I really like the way Orlando City have played, virtually all year, but I can’t take them seriously as a threat unless Luis Muriel’s back as a super-sub, and unless they’re about to add a left winger who can actually kick the ball into the net.
Maybe Ramiro Enrique’s star turn this weekend will be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. It’s time: He’s got the third-best G/90 mark in the league and the second-best xG/90. If he’s a starter now, I’d consider moving Orlando up a tier.
With San Diego FC, I’d say it’s more than just liking the way they’ve played; I absolutely love what they’ve been from Day 1 under Mikey Varas.
But they’re amid some roster churn right now due to some injuries (along the backline and in central midfield) and absences (at center forward, where Milan Iloski was the world’s greatest No. 9 for two months and is now in some sort of limbo).
They just logged a super impressive 1-0 win over an excellent Nashville side, but still, a lot would have to snap into place over the next few days.
Necaxa had a strong Clausura and are off to a good enough start in the Apertura (no shame in getting drilled at Toluca on Matchday 1, and a credible draw vs. Club América this weekend) to make them interesting. But I don’t think they’re all that threatening, especially after selling Paradela to Cruz Azul.
I like what Charlotte FC and the Colorado Rapids have become recently – I wrote some about the chemistry Charlotte have built in attack over the past month, and about how much better the Rapids look now that they’re healthy – and could see them using this tournament to keep building on what they’ve already shown, then spinning that into a major push down the stretch.
I have a hard time envisioning them winning it, though. Particularly for Colorado, this weekend served as a good lesson about the gap between them and the league’s best teams.
Atlas are sneaky good. They’ve spent a lot of their existence being mediocre, but they were great three years ago when they won back-to-back titles. Then they were mediocre again after selling everyone on that side, but it seems like they’ve learned – at least a little – how to rebuild on the fly.
Old friend Gonzalo Pineda is the manager there now, by the way.
I don’t really believe in Chivas or Pumas, two of the traditional grandes of LIGA MX. But both teams are at least fun and interesting from an MLS perspective, with new additions Efraín Álvarez, Daniel Aguirre and Richy Ledezma joining Cade Cowell, Chicharito and Alan Pulido for Chivas, and Pedro Vite joining Coco Carrasquilla with Pumas.
Both teams, however, were pretty bad in the Clausura and are suffering through varying degrees of ineptitude in the Apertura.
NYCFC have already made a big move this summer in bringing in a new DP attacker, there’s a new center back reportedly on the way, Keaton Parks should be healthy soon, and I like their overall talent.
But that’s a lot to reintegrate, and they’ve got a big injury to worry about right now with Thiago Martins, so… there’s a lot that’d have to go right for them to make a run. I think this tournament will be more about figuring out what pieces work together for Pascal Jansen.
The breakout star of this summer’s Gold Cup was probably Club Tijuana’s 16-year-old midfielder Gilberto Mora, who got meaningful minutes for El Tri and did not look at all intimidated by that.
Two other notables on this roster are Ramiro Árciga, who was a breakout player for Mazatlán in last year’s Leagues Cup, and Jamaican international No. 9 Shamar Nicholson, who I’ve long wanted an MLS team to buy.
Los Xolos are fun and kind of good. But they are also the kind of team that can do stuff like drop home points to Juárez.
Look, it’s not you. It’s them.
The fact the LA Galaxy beat the New York Red Bulls in last year’s MLS Cup feels like a fever dream. Yes, the Galaxy are playing better than they did during the first half of this season from hell, but no, they’re nothing like a threat to win this thing.
Neither are the Red Bulls, who need to take a minute and figure out who they are. This is the first time in a long time they’ve had any sort of identity crisis, and right now they’re not even an Audi MLS Cup Playoffs team in the Eastern Conference.
Mazatlán were one of the fun stories of the Apertura’s first two weeks with four points from two games, and, in Nicolás Benedetti, they have a No. 10 who can occasionally make magic.
But c’mon. They’re not winning a trophy anytime soon, and Pachuca showed the quality gap on Saturday.
None of the other traditionally small clubs in LIGA MX are winning anything this summer, either: Atlético San Luis, Juárez, Puebla and Querétaro are all cannon fodder. Of that group, San Luis are the ones to keep the closest eye on – they play good ball, and Eduardo Águila is fun.
I’ve been worried about the Portland Timbers all year despite their relatively lofty place in the standings, and the past couple of months have mostly confirmed those fears. If they can use this tournament to get one of the forwards scoring again, and to lock back in defending set pieces – Friday’s win at LAFC was a very good sign in that regard – then it’ll be a successful sojourn no matter what the results are.
Real Salt Lake have at least shown progress in the league over the past month and have reportedly made some moves at the start of the Secondary Transfer Window. They’re now officially eighth in the Western Conference, and with Diego Luna, Zavier Gozo and Diogo Gonçalves in the attack, have a chance to be both effective and fun.
What’s happened to Santos Laguna? From 1996 to 2021, they were one of the most successful clubs in LIGA MX, with six league titles and five runners-up finishes, on top of a Copa MX title and a Campeón de Campeones.
They’ve fallen into the abyss since then and have finished dead last in the past two seasons. Things have been a bit better at the start of the current Apertura (at least before being soundly beaten by Puebla of all teams), but this is a group just looking for progress, not trophies.
The same can be said for the Houston Dynamo, Atlanta United and CF Montréal.
- Houston need to figure out their optimal attacking pieces. They’ve collected a bunch, but it’s unclear how they all fit together. Every rep at this point is valuable.
- The Five Stripes are searching for signs of life from their veterans and something they can build on down the stretch and into next season, all while Chris Henderson rebuilds the defense on the fly.
- Montréal are dead last in the East, and their front office just released a statement saying they’ve “decided to undertake a rebuild and launch a new chapter” at the club. They responded with a good win at New England last weekend, but they’ll face sterner tests in this tournament.
